TORONTO — Environment Canada is predicting a milder than normal winter in the months ahead, but considering the weather patterns of the last 10 years, it should come as no surprise.

Of the last 37 seasons, only two were colder than normal, and it's been a decade since a winter season wasn't unseasonably mild compared to historical averages, said Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips.

"Winter is different now than it used to be," Phillips said in an interview. "The dice have clearly been loaded to give us warmer-than-normal seasons, including the winter. The climate has changed."

Only a few areas in the far north and parts of Labrador, where few people live, are expected to be colder than normal this year. Parts of Quebec and Atlantic Canada can expect normal temperatures, while the rest of the country is expected to be relatively mild, Phillips said.

One important factor that will impact whether the forecast comes true is the El Nino effect: changes in the weather caused by a very large, warm pool of water sitting in the Pacific Ocean.

It causes more Pacific air to flow across the country rather than Arctic air, and has "a profound effect on our winters here," Phillips said.

"It's almost money in the bank to say this will be a milder than normal winter if El Nino stays together and it grows in size."

It's been a while since Canadians were exposed to a true Canadian winter and most have likely forgotten what real cold is, Phillips said.

"We used to be able to handle tough weather in this country and I wonder if we're getting soft," he said of the annual complaints about the winter cold.

"If we ever had an average winter - not a brutal winter but just an average winter - it would be absolutely brutal on us. If we faced something like back in the 50s, 60s and 70s we would find it probably very punishing."

Most children and teenagers have never faced a winter like their parents, Phillips said, giving credence to all those stories of walking to school - both ways - in deep snow and blinding winds.

"When they hear their grandparents say, 'Well, I remember the winters of the past,' listen to those elderly people because they remember that it was much tougher years ago than it is now."

The only seasons that were colder than normal in the last decade were the spring of 2002 and the spring of 2004, Phillips said.

And Phillips said there's no clearer evidence of Canada's warming trend than the weather over the last four seasons.

"Last year in Canada we had the warmest winter on record, almost four degrees warmer than normal," he said.

"Last fall was the 2nd warmest fall on record, we had the warmest spring and the 2nd warmest summer on record. If anything, this last 12 months has probably been the warmest 12 months we've seen in the last 60 years in Canada."

Phillips wouldn't point the finger at any specific causes for the climate change but he said the numbers are undeniable.

"This is good data from every corner of this country, there's no biases, we just present the results," he said.

"And now and then you begin to see the impact that (weather) has on a myriad of things, from people to plants to animals, fires to agriculture, you name it, there's no sector that's untouched by this change of climate."