TORONTO - Ontario's universities have neither a sufficient number of qualified faculty members nor enough room for what's expected to be an influx of thousands more graduate students this fall, says a pre-budget analysis to be released Monday.

The study by the Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations, which speaks for the province's professors and lecturers, applauds the provincial government's strategy of expanding graduate enrolment, but finds shortfalls in both its planning and funding.

"The government's wish to expand graduate enrolment significantly this fall is not compatible with the complexities involved,'' the analysis says.

"Consequently, it is risking the quality of graduate education.''

Prompted in part by the double cohort created when Ontario scrapped Grade 13 in 2003, as well the demands of a knowledge-based economy, universities have been preparing for an expected bulge in graduate students in the coming years.

In its Reaching Higher strategy, the Liberal government projected there would be roughly 37,000 graduate students in the system this fall _ almost 50 per cent more than in 2002-2003 and 30 per cent more than 2005-06.

"The government is to be commended for its vision,'' said association president Michael Doucet.

"But our concern is: Do we have the financial resources necessary to allow us to deliver the quality of education for these students?''

In an interview, Colleges and Universities Minister Chris Bentley said the government consulted with universities on their expansion plans, then pledged money for both staff and facilities for each additional student.

Universities knew exactly how much cash they had to play with and it's up to them to exercise their "good judgment'' and ensure expansion occurs appropriately, he said.

"It's really a comprehensive program which is fully funded, but we do not want institutions to go faster than they can,'' Bentley said.

"I don't want to undermine the quality of anybody's education.''

To help universities hire more staff, the provincial government has pledged $170 million for graduate expansion for 2007-08.

However, the association's analysis suggests more than $500 million is required to hire the 1,900 faculty needed to return student-faculty ratios _ a key measure of education quality _ to the levels of the mid-1990s.

"If we don't do this, there will be a true erosion in the quality of graduate education,'' Doucet said.

Qaid Silk, a research manager with the Council of Ontario Universities, said institutions seem to be happy with how well they're prepared for the fall.

"We seem to be on track in terms of our general plans and preparations to meet these targets,'' Silk said.

"They're doing their darndest to ramp up.''

Money for faculty and other staff has generally been enough, but capital spending has been insufficient, Silk said.

The faculty association analysis urges the government to increase funding for renewing facilities to $451 million a year, up from the current $27 million.

It also urges the government to increase the number and amount of Ontario scholarships available to graduates.

Bentley said the government wants to make sure students are "properly and fully supported'' and is "constantly'' evaluating their needs.

Ontario's budget comes down March 22.