ctvtoronto.ca news

One of Canada's most urban ridings is likely to be a fight between NDP incumbent Olivia Chow and Liberal Christine Innes, wife of former Liberal MP Tony Ianno, whom Chow defeated in 2006.

Trinity-Spadina is home to the looming downtown towers of the financial industry and its power-suited employees. But its major sidewalks also teem with urban hipsters in the Queen West and Little Italy areas and, along Spadina Avenue, elderly women selling vegetables and trinkets in Chinatown.

Chow, the former long-time city councillor and wife of NDP Leader Jack Layton, defeated four-term Liberal incumbent Ianno in 2006 by more than 3,400 votes after losing to him by about 800 votes two years earlier (she also finished second in a 1997 battle).

Ianno isn't running this time. His wife, lawyer Christina Innes, will be carrying the Liberal banner against Chow. That move came as a late surprise, being announced two days before the election call on Sept. 7.

In launching the campaign, the Liberals tried to paint the fight as one of stopping Conservative Leader Stephen Harper -- which, from their perspective, means electing Liberal MPs. Chow has derided that view as typical Liberal entitlement.

However, Adam Vaughan, who replaced Chow on city council to represent Ward 20, suggests that Chow could indeed be vulnerable.

"What would defeat Olivia in a minute is if the Liberals even looked like they were getting close to knocking off Harper," he told ctvtoronto.ca. "The strategic voting and the push to stop Harper would be so quick, so pronounced, so loud, that you'd see a Liberal elected so fast you wouldn't know what hit you."

In 2004, the Liberals used the threat of a Harper victory to help Ianno fend off Chow.

Both couples, Innes and Ianno and Chow and Layton, live in the riding. Chow can sometimes be seen riding a bicycle decorated with plastic flowers.

Christine McGirr is the Conservatives' candidate while Stephen LaFrenie is running for the Green Party.

Of the riding's 115,360 residents, slightly more than half -- 58,215 -- are female, according to the 2006 census.

However, barring a substantial realignment, history suggests this will likely be an NDP-Liberal battle.

The Tories have no recent history of success in the area. One-time Liberal Paul Hellyer won an election in 1972 in the old Spadina riding as a Progressive Conservative before losing in 1974. Provincially, Rosario Marchese represents most of the area as an NDP MPP, and the area has elected left-leaning city councillors Joe Pantalone and Vaughan.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories finished fourth," Vaughan said. He feels there's no appetite for right-wing, tax-cutting policies in the downtown core. With environment an important issue, he suggested the Greens could play a spoiler role.

Of the four surrounding federal ridings, the Davenport, St. Paul's and Toronto Centre ridings are held by Liberals. To the west, the NDP's Peggy Nash took Parkdale-High Park from the Liberals in 2006.

Geography, demography

The Toronto Islands form Trinity-Spadina's southern boundary. It then goes northward to the railway tracks just north of Dupont Street, with Yonge Street and Avenue Road forming the eastern boundary. Ossington Street forms most of the western boundary, although the riding jogs further westward at Dovercourt and Dufferin Streets in the southwest.

The historic, funky Kensington Market neighbourhood is contained within the riding, as are the downtown Chinatown, Portugal Village,  the Annex and the University of Toronto.

So-called "creative class" types have a heavy presence in parts of the riding. Once upon a time, Trinity-Spadina was home to the city's garment trades and some manufacturing businesses. But now, Vaughan says the cultural industry in the King-Spadina corridor is important -- and is being affected by federal Tory cuts.

"The culture of Toronto is the business of Toronto, and the business of Toronto is the culture of Toronto," he said. "And the Tories' cultural policy is having a ripple effect of impacts on a whole series of other businesses that could be quite catastrophic."

If the NDP or Liberals address this pocketbook issue successfully, it will help them capture votes, he said.

Gentrification is an ongoing process, as affluent young couples seek out the riding's Victorian homes. Condominiums and other in-fill housing, including the urban suburbia of Liberty Village, dominate the far south end.

The median age is about four years younger than the Canadian and Ontario median of 39. Median family income for all census families is pegged at $66,296 in 2005 -- above the Canadian average of $63,866 but below the Ontario average of $69,156. However, about 27 per cent of the population is considered low-income, compared to about 15 per cent for Ontario and Canada.

About 41 per cent of the riding's population is immigrants. People of Chinese descent are by far the largest visible minority group, comprising about half of the nearly 37,000 identified as such in the 2006 census. About 43 per cent have a mother tongue that is neither English nor French.

Not surprisingly, housing and immigration are two issues that could move votes, Vaughan said.

On Chow's website, the text is available in Chinese, Portuguese and Italian -- representing the three largest ethnic groups in the riding. Innes' website does not have multiple languages, nor does the Green candidate's website. McGirr doesn't have a website as of publication.

CTV Toronto will be hosting a Trinity-Spadina town hall meeting at 6 p.m. Wednesday at the Moonbeam Coffee Co. at 30 St. Andrews St. in Kensington Market. Everyone is welcome.

Previous election results

2006

• Olivia Chow, NDP - 28,748 (46 per cent)
• Tony Ianno, Liberal - 25,067 (40.1 per cent)
• Sam Goldstein, Conservative - 5,625 (9 per cent)
• Thom Chapman, Greens - 2,398 (3.8 per cent)

2004

• Tony Ianno, Liberal - 23,202 (43.6 per cent)
• Olivia Chow, NDP - 22,397 (42 per cent)
• David Watters, Conservative - 4,605 (8.6 per cent)
• Mark Vitala, Greens - 2,259 (4.2 per cent)

2000

• Tony Ianno, Liberal - 20,032 (47.6 per cent)
• Michael Valpy, NDP - 16,001 (38 per cent)
• John E. Polko, P.C. - 2,309 (5.5 per cent)
• Lee Monaco, Alliance - 2,250 (5.3 per cent)
• Matthew Hammond, Greens - 562 (1.3 per cent)

1997

• Tony Ianno, Liberal - 18,215 (45.3 per cent)
• Olivia Chow, NDP - 16, 413 (40.8 per cent)
• Danielle Wai Mascall, Progressive Conservatives - 2,793 (6.9 per cent)
• Nolan Young, Reform - 1,659 (4.1 per cent)
• Sat Singh Khalsa - 392 (1 per cent)

Comments are now closed for this story

Lart from Above
Trinity-Spadina has been a Liberal-NDP swing riding for many, many years. It's always been a matter of demographics, with the ethnic Liberal vote versus the urban NDP vote. In recent years, the Liberals usually win unless they are unusually weak for some reason. The sponsorship scandal pushed people away from the Liberals in 2006, but that's not an issue this time. The Greens may be a spoiler, but they are collecting protest votes that traditionally went to the NDP. Layton's Harper-style partisanship is alienating a few people. However, as a former city councilor, Olivia is much better at showing up at community meetings.

Most voters in Trinity-Spadina are happy with any non-Conservative candidate. No real news there.

Jeff T. (Toronto)
wasn't it the Conservatives who apologized for the Chinese head tax? change immigration rules to make it easier for skilled workers to immigrate? cut taxes for small businesses and now promising people buy a new place to live a tax cut on that too? Cut the GST 2%? Yep.

So ya it seems so strange that people in the core always are so anti-Tory....ohh wait ya the Toronto Star is their news source.

David
So while the rest of the country goes conservative Toronto will vote Liberal and wonder why no Federal money comes their way.

It will serve them right if they are shut out of funding.

Robert
With the Liberal vote sinking like a stone and no leadership, there is no chance their winning Spadina. Olivia Chow will win in a walk. By the way, I am a Conservative and therefore also a realist.

Jj
I am a nonpartisan individual, but these scare tactics by the Liberals almost makes me want to vote Conservative or NDP just to spite them. Vote Liberal or the big, bad conservatives will get (more) power? A vote for us (Liberals) is one less vote for the evil Conservatives? Come on, these were scare tactics used in the elections last time around and it clearly did not benefit the Liberals at all, power-wise.

The Liberal PR machine needs a new message because now they're just crying wolf.