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Oshawa has been one of the Conservative party's beachheads in the eastern GTA, but the NDP would dearly love to bring the riding back into the fold.

Canadian Auto Workers president Ken Lewenza fired up his members in Oshawa on Wednesday, urging them to defeat Tory candidates.

"If we don't have a government that recognizes the manufacturing crisis, then we are not going to have a manufacturing sector," he said.

If the trick can be pulled off in Oshawa, it would mark one of the 45 ridings where Lewenza said Tories must be defeated for a change in government to take place.

Local 222 in Oshawa has about 11,000 active members and another 9,000 retired members, CAW spokesman Joe Sarnovsky told ctvtoronto.ca.

Not all those people live right in Oshawa, but a sizable number do, he said.

The riding's population is 116,885. As in 2004 and 2006, the fight will likely be between the Tories and the NDP.

Conservative incumbent Colin Carrie first won the riding in 2004 against the NDP's Syd Ryan, a high-profile former leader of the Canadian Union of Public Employees in Ontario, edging him by less than 500 votes.

Two years later, he would again defeat Ryan, this time by 2,700 votes. Louise Parkes, the Liberal candidate, finished more than 5,000 votes behind Ryan. She also finished third in 2004.

The Liberals have known success in Oshawa. From 1993 to 2004, Ivan Grose held the riding for the party. However, he benefited from vote-splitting between the Reform/Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative candidates -- an advantage that ended with the 2004 election.

Before 1993, the NDP dominated in Oshawa. Former party leader Ed Broadbent called this riding home for 22 years before leaving politics in 1990. Provincially, however, Oshawa went Progressive Conservative in 1995, buying into the low-tax, small-government "Common Sense Revolution" of Premier Mike Harris. It has remained a provincial Tory riding ever since.

In this federal election year, former Local 222 president Mike Shields is carrying the NDP's banner. His riding received a visit from NDP Leader Jack Layton.

The other candidates in Oshawa are:

• Liberals - Dr. Sean Godfrey, chief of pediatrics at Lakeridge Health Oshawa
• Greens - Pat Gostlin, a retired teacher
• Canadian Action - Alex Krieder
• Christian Heritage - Peter de Vogel
• Marxist-Leninist - David Gershuny

Auto troubles

Oshawa is home to the headquarters of General Motors Canada, which has been building vehicles here since 1907. Nine thousand GM employees are CAW members.

One factor that may play out in the campaign is the turmoil of structural change in the auto industry.

As consumers gravitate to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, they have moved away from the products put out by the Big Three. This has taken its toll on Oshawa and other Big Three auto-dominant communities across Ontario.

This past summer, GM announced it would shut down its pickup truck plant in 2009, which would mean the loss of 2,600 jobs. Last month, the CAW said more than 2,600 senior workers have agreed to early retirement or buyouts.

Earlier this year, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty had said there would be no federal bailouts. "These Band-Aids for individual companies ... it's picking winners and losers. Governments aren't good at that," he said in February.

But in a Sept. 5 announcement, two days before Prime Minister Stephen Harper called an election for Oct. 14, the federal government announced a $290 million deal with GM. In exchange for forgiving repayment of a loan under the 2005 Beacon Agreement, GM would:

• Develop a new manufacturing system in St. Catharines that would produce fuel-efficient transmissions
• Produce a new mid-size hybrid vehicle in Oshawa
• Create research and development projects in Oshawa on environmentally friendly technologies

In terms of political geography, the deal carries possible benefits for two other ridings held by the Tories:

• Whitby-Oshawa is Flaherty's riding. He won by 3,400 votes in 2006
• St. Catharines, which Rick Dykstra won by only 246 votes in 2006

Incidentally, Industry Minister Jim Prentice announced the deal. Carrie is his parliamentary secretary.

Geography, demography

Oshawa sits 60 kilometres east of Toronto in Durham region. It sits on the shore of Lake Ontario, and the condition of the harbour and marina is an important issue.

The riding's eastern boundary with Durham riding is marked by Townline Road North. Winchester Road East marks the northern boundary with Whitby-Oshawa. Simcoe Street north, Oshawa Creek and the Whitby-Oshawa boundary form the rest of the western boundary.

Durham is also held by the Conservatives. However, the Liberals hold the Ajax-Pickering and Pickering-Scarborough East ridings.

About one in six of the city's labour force draws a paycheque from manufacturing.

During the good times, the city has prospered -- married couples do slightly better than the Ontario and Canadian medians, but the median income for all census families is slightly below the Ontario average -- $67,958 vs. $69,156.

Oshawa has a relatively small number of visible minorities -- about 15 per cent of the population. About 15 per cent of the riding's population are immigrants.

In the two urban Toronto ridings that CTV Toronto has profiled so far -- Trinity-Spadina and Parkdale-High Park -- the immigrant population is in the 40 per cent range.

The number of people described as low-income in Oshawa sits at about 19 per cent, slightly above the Ontario average. In the two Toronto ridings, it's closer to 25 per cent or slightly higher.

CTV Toronto's Tom Hayes is hosting a town hall with the candidates at the Legends Centre, 1161 Harmony Rd. N. in Oshawa, at 6 p.m. Everyone is welcome.

Please Add Comments(6)

Norman
Who would let a union tell them who or who not to vote for?
Especially the CAW, whose continued relevance is questionable after losing plant after shift after plant, despite all the chest thumping and illegal activities they forced their members into over the summer. Now the bullies want control of their mambers votes too? I'm sure glad I don't belong to that archaic union.

Jim
After visisting the Automotive Museum in Oshawa today, the importance of the auto industry which moto-vates Canadians is essentail for the Canadian economy. I could have spent a few hours in the museum and I encourage otehrs to see what their forefathers and foremothers produced since the decades and the production of the model T. It is truly nostalgic. GM builds a truck better than any other I have driven. They are needed here in Canada, I don't care what anyone says about that. We have harsh winters here and further north, east in the Maritimes and west on the prairies, not to mention north of 60!

Trucks built by GM are more fuel efficient, more reliable, more technological advances and in time will produce even better trucks and vehicles for Canadians who want jobs to stay in Canada and North America.

Chris
All for one, one for all. Pack mentality, only problem is the new star of the Liberals Bob Rae pissed the group off. Now strategic voting takes place that splits the left vote. Hope they keep it up

Peter
Oshawa 60 km east of Toronto? What decade was this stat compiled in? The east boundary of Toronto (Scarborough) to the west boundary of Oshawa is about 23 km. Heck, the DVP to my house in Oshawa is about 40 km.

As for politics, yes Oshawa was historically NDP. But that all changed when out of towners moved to Oshawa in the last 20 years due to cheaper housing.

And Jim, I agree.

Oshawa resident
Would have been more informative if Mr Carrie was questioned as to what he plans to do to bring more jobs to the Oshawa area, what solutions he has to offer besides free ice cream, and why his government is trying to take credit for obtaining a vehicle that was already negiotated and committed to by GM. Your interview did not even touch on the depth of issues in Oshawa. Too orchestrated.

Bill from Whitby
Jim - GM is still producing trucks just not in Oshawa because of a greedy union. The world has changed and if GM offered line jobs at $18 per hour (which is a very good wage by the way) and benefits of 80% like the rest of the world they would have thousands of people lined up for the jobs. Time for Oshawa to pull its head out of the sand and see what the real world is all about.