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The Thanksgiving dinner conversations of Toronto families as they digest turkey, stuffing and calamitous financial news could determine the outcome of some tight federal election races in the city.

"There are weekends that are always important in election campaigns, and long weekends in election campaigns -- especially as they get closer and closer to a vote -- are critical," city councillor Adam Vaughn told ctvtoronto.ca.

"Families gather round, social groups gather round, and invariably the conversation turns to 'who are you voting for?'"

This scenario is perfect for strategic voting and resultant voter volatility, "which has seen pollsters be fooled before and sit there with blank stares on their face on election day when all of a sudden -- boom! -- a surprise emerges," he said.

Pollster Tim Woolstencroft echoed that view. "We've been speculating the family turkey dinner will be a pivotal moment," he told ctvtoronto.ca. "There's a real probability that votes will change."

He said in recent elections, the Liberal vote has come up in the final days.

But the polling so far doesn't suggest a national tightening of the race.

The latest Harris-Decima poll for The Canadian Press released Saturday has the Tories widening a lead over the Liberals nationally (Ontario in brackets):

• Conservatives - 35 per cent (35 per cent)
• Liberals - 25 per cent (32 per cent)
• NDP - 18 per cent (22 per cent)
• Greens - 11 per cent (11 per cent)

The poll interviewed 1,273 people between Tuesday and Friday, meaning the margin of error is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Vaughn said Friday if it became communicated at the dinner that a last-minute Liberal surge could knock the Conservatives from power, it could make a difference in two of the NDP-held ridings -- Trinity-Spadina and Parkdale-High Park.

"They don't have huge margins and it could change, but I don't want to be a candidate this weekend," he chuckled.

Toronto poll numbers

A poll released Friday suggested the Liberals are still running strongly in Toronto but don't appear to be as dominant as they were in 2006.

The Strategic Counsel poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail puts Liberal support at 39 per cent, compared to 51 per cent in the 2006 federal campaign.

Here are the other parties (percentage-point change from 2006 in brackets):

• Conservatives - 29 per cent (+5)
• NDP - 20 per cent (-1)
• Greens - 12 per cent (+8)

The polling was conducted between Oct. 7 and 9. the sample size is 230, meaning the margin of error is plus or minus 6.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

"Across the board, we've seen a decline in Liberal support ... and it's affecting Toronto," Woolstencroft said.

In 2006, the Liberals won 20 of 23 Toronto seats, with the NDP winning the remaining three. The Conservatives were shut out in Toronto.

But while the Conservative vote might be up, that party is really benefiting from fracturing on the left, he said.

Woolstencroft predicted the Green vote would tail off, but still come in at eight to nine per cent nationally -- almost double its 2006 support.

905 ridings

In south central Ontario -- the inner 905 suburbs around Toronto and outer communities -- the breakdown is as follows:

• Conservatives - 40 per cent (+1)
• Liberals - 33 per cent (-11)
• NDP - 15 per cent (+3)
• Greens - 12 per cent (+7)

In southwest Ontario, the frontrunners appear to be in a battle:

• Conservatives - 35 per cent (-2)
• Liberals - 33 per cent (-1)
• NDP - 18 per cent  (-6)
• Greens - 14 per cent (+9)

Provincially, the Tories lead (percentage-point change from 2006 in brackets):

• Conservatives - 37 per cent (+2)
• Liberals - 32 per cent (-8)
• NDP - 20 per cent (unchanged)
• Greens - 11 per cent (+6)          

Woolstencroft said there are many seats in play outside Toronto, especially in the 905 areas.

On Friday and Saturday, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper made appearances in Brantford, Toronto, Guelph and London.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion made Friday stops in Brantford, Brampton, Burlington and Oakville. On Saturday, he was to be in Orillia, Newmarket and Vaughn.

People should watch where the leaders go in these dying days of the 2008 campaign to see where the action might be on Tuesday night, Woolstencroft said.

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