Updated: Thu May. 07 2009 12:11:10

CTV.ca News Staff

The World Health Organization says as many as two billion people could be infected by the new H1N1 virus, if the current outbreak continues to spread.

WHO flu chief Keiji Fukuda made the comment Thursday at the daily WHO news conference in Geneva, not as a prediction, but as an observation about flu pandemics.

In previous pandemics, Fukuda said, one-third of the world's population gets infected. So with a world population of six billion people, it's "reasonable" to expect two billion infections, he said.

That doesn't mean any pandemic that might be declared of this virus would be severe and cause as many deaths as the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which killed about 70 million people.

It may be more like the the last flu pandemic, the Hong Kong Flu in 1968, which was considered mild by pandemic terms. Only about one million people globally died of that flu, caused by a new strain of H3N2. That compares to the estimated 500,000 people who die around the world every year from seasonal flu.

Fukuda said it is impossible at this point to say whether a H1N1 pandemic would be mild or severe.

Last week, the WHO raised its flu pandemic alert to Phase 5, one step short of a pandemic. On Thursday, Fukuda said the H1N1 virus is not yet spreading in a sustained way outside North America, so the pandemic level will remain at 5.

"We remain at Phase 5. That is not changed," Fukuda told reporters.

"We continue to see human to human transmission, community-level transmission, primarily in North America. We are not seeing it yet anywhere else."

According to the WHO's latest tally, the virus has killed 42 people in Mexico and two in the United States. Many of the 2,099 people with confirmed infections have had relatively mild symptoms similar to the seasonal flu.

The WHO defines a flu pandemic as a worldwide spread of infection from a new influenza virus to which people have little or no immunity. Rises in the pandemic level reflect assessments of how the virus is spreading, not the severity of its effects.

A move to Phase 6, the highest level of the pandemic scale, would speed up efforts already under way to produce and distribute antiviral drugs and vaccines. Fukuda said governments should do all they can now to get ready.

"This is a time in which we can work with countries to be as prepared as possible," he said. "Our bottom is line that there are things that countries can do, that we can help them with, to get them prepared for this potential increase in people getting sick."

Please Add Comments

Diana - AB
So you would rather not be informed of a new virus that there is very little knowledge about? Come on people...that's what the WHO is there for. You'd be complaining if they didn't say anything and it turned worse. Stop bashing them.

Arnold
I was told by very reputable immunobiologyst who explained to me that H1N1 could be very dangerous and it should attack in the Fall when it usually happens. Right now it's just sitting and waiting 'cause its not a flu season.

Dave H
To the people refencing the Spanish flu of 1918, have you considered medical advances, poverty living conditions, and the world focus (ww1) at that time? The media and the WHO should really change focus from fear-mongering to reasearch into what they report BEFORE they report and send less intelligent sheeple into a frenzy.

boomer
ok 2,099 confirmed cases 42 dead... that is a 2% death rate.

what is the death rate for a seasonal flu?????????

SP Smith
2 billion infected would be expected for a novel strain such as this one. The WHO didn't say 2 billion would die or even become ill - simply become infected. Flu has a wide range of severity of illness & WHO, CDC or any other health authority is not calling on anyone to panic - simply to be aware.

Of course they can't predict what flu will do - no one can. It's a virus that has a very high rate of mutation & we're simply fortunate that most mutations have no impact on human illness from flu.

But while they can't predict, they have to use some assumptions is assessing potential risk & mediation of illness.

Here in the developed world with easier access to medical care, we might fare very well.The developing world might see a complete different outbreak or pandemic. The WHO is charged with assessing risks throughout all regions of the world & would not be doing their job if they didn't give appropriate warnings of the potential this illness has.

Bubba O Reilly - Ajax
I thought "The WHO" was a rock band. Not a Crock band. What the heck is really going on?

markass
Lets not forget that the WHO is a global body. We may not be impacted greatly here, but developing nations with poor health care may suffer substancial impacts. Even in Canada, if 1/3 of the people get the flu there will be substancial costs and yes, some deaths.

PORKY
Today i stepped out in public without a surgical mask.
I've also been craving bacon....am i gonna die?


Enough already...this media fed story is not newsworthy anymore.

Dale - Edmonton
I really don't believe that anyone is actually scared of this anymore if indeed they ever were. Friends, family, coworkers - none of them are even a little concerned. So how do we explain the folks who post comments claiming we're crazy and should be scared? Around here they call them Sh** disturbers, folks looking to get others riled up and the best plan is to ignore them the same as the world is ignoring the WHO freak out warnings.

A Left-Leaning Albertan
2 billion!?!? Are they fanning the flames of public histeria or what?

Thinking in Victoria
All you people bashing the WHO make me laugh at your small mindedness. Sure the WHO may be wrong but they must take it serious in case it DOES become a pandemic. If they are wrong all you wanna-be experts will say "I told you so" but IF they are right you will all be crying "why didn't you do enough" and "give me some vaccine, it is my RIGHT".
Try putting yourself in their shoes and actually think through the decisions they have to make. Or is it easier to come here and show your ignorance of the real world..

Bob Walker
This is a good thing as it builds up resistance without a lot of mortality to any mutations into the next strain. This is how humans have survived for three million years!

Reece
"Like any other flu virus they say. I pray for their clueless souls that they do not get into contact with the virulent version of the virus and learn firsthand how the lack of resistance from their own bodies may lead them to death."

What you are failing to grasp is that everybody is gonna die from something eventually. Maybe a garbage truck - who truly knows. If there is imminent danger then of course we want to take precautions, but knee jerk reactions and causing the "clueless" to run around like chickens with their heads cut off doesn't make things better. You can bathe in anti-bacterials and wear your silly masks but you are toast if millions start to die. We are not afraid because we live with danger every day. If you're so afraid then I suggest that you buy a bio-hazzard suit.

PJR
to all you nay sayers out there: it's the bloody WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION!!! Personally I tend to believe them over the armchair physicians posting messages here!

It's not just the WHO...
Just 2 Days ago this was on-line, so here is an excerpt from the United States CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) in what they had to say;

Health officials told lawmakers Wednesday it took only two weeks to identify the genetic characteristics of swine flu, and they are in good position to quickly produce a vaccine if the flu takes a turn for the worse.

At the same time, the officials cautioned members of a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that "there are still elements of what they called the novel 2009 H1N1 influenza virus that they don't understand," and it was not time for complacency.

Dr. Dennis Carroll, special adviser on pandemic flu to the U.S. Agency for International Development, noted that the 1918-1919 flu pandemic also began in the spring and was initially mild, but a much more lethal version hit six months later and the virus eventually killed 50 million worldwide.

It's not just the WHO whistling this tune, it's other CREDIBLE Institutions as well.

Why the concern? They simply do not have all the information concerning this "VIRUS," it's genetic makers that causes this to kill one person and not another.

ONE HAS GOT TO ASK THEMSELVES...how much worse would this viral outbreak be, how many more Countries would be affected and how many more deaths would have occurred, had the WHO, CDC and Mexico hadn't sounded the alarm?

Mexico did not take their drastic measures for no reason to contain the virus, as not one scientist fully comprehends or understands the complexities of the virus, as there are just too many questions about the chemical make-up of the virus that have no answers at this time.

Dave from NB - A have not and never will province
I have a hard time with anyone who decides to predict anything. A prediction is just that and serves no earthly purpose. I wonder at the real goal of the WHO. I predict that the sun will set tonight and will rise again in the morning. Predictions and opinions are like rear ends, everybody has one. The WHO preys on the masses and in my humble opinion (remember I said everyone has one) sets the stage for big business to make lots of money creating an antedote that that is very similar to the one they created during the last episode of this flu. I wonder what their cut is?????

nelly ab
you know what is sad--people who comment on here and put down the WHO....what do you expect them to do? Sit back and watch as this novel virus multiplies in the world population and do nothing? People-read up on the history and biology of flu outbreaks. I hope I'm wrong--but this virus has some SCARY potential in the future. Do some reading before going off on WHO and media. You won't be happy until this virus mutates to a drug resistant, lethal form? Then what will you be saying about the WHO? they didn't warn us?
I'm not panicking YET about this virus, but we'll see...
I understand people want to live their lives and not worry about everything--but please don't condemn the WHO for doing their jobs. I guarantee the people there have a greater education than the people commenting on this website (myself included)

SP Smith
I don't see a WHO disconnect from reality. The reality is & WHO freely admits it... nobody KNOWS what this strain might do. It may never be worse than the seasonal flus we're accustomed to. It COULD turn more virulent.

Should that happen, it will simply appear that way with no further lead time available to any health agency or government to quickly ramp up preparations.

No agency or organization is asking anyone to panic. They're simply asking people to remain aware, practice good hygiene & common sense practices associated with infectious illness & to take nothing for granted.

If we're lucky, this will never become worse than it is, currently. Let's hope so.

David
Wow you sheeple better wake up before the Fall, lest you be 'culled'

This virus will certainly mutated and become deadly, that's what it's been engineered to do, do you even know the origin of this virus? do you know anything of this virus other than what the media told you last week, but are now silent?

The WHO is telling you the truth, but you with your godlike wisdom will think all is well...

they're not making space for mass graves for nothing

Bob in Ottawa
It's getting harder and harder to take these worldwide associations seriously, UN, WHO, etc.

They seem disconnected from reality. Don't they ever look out their windows ?
Just like politicians trying to justify their existence.

Interesting
I find it highly interesting to read the comments on the H1N1 here. Some really gets it and others are long winded trying to debunk what is evidence. Let's call them the clueless.
Obviously, they fail to understand the functioning of viral infections. Like any other flu virus they say. I pray for their clueless souls that they do not get into contact with the virulent version of the virus and learn firsthand how the lack of resistance from their own bodies may lead them to death. Of course, being clueless, they do not understand that we have active defences against various viruses but when a new one comes about, we are virtually defenceless as we seen in the past with outbreaks such as the Spanish Influenza back at the turn of the century.
On the bright side, they really crack me up when reading their clueless comments.

debby
Mellow in Montreal

Although the WHO continues to proclaim that a possible pandemic is imminent with this new H1N1 flu strain, we should NOT immediately give in to the mass hysteria that the media has created. Instead, we should continue living our lives, but also be on our guard for any changes that may occur to this strain over the next coming months... In other words, continue living normally, but exercise caution at the same time by frequent hand-washing, as suggested by the experts.

Bill in Burlington
They would love that. WHO... The face of globalist bureaucrats attempting to form a world government. I wouldn't be surprised if they released this virus themselves.

Mike
I find it interesting that no one seem to be comparing it to a "normal" flu strain. I know this virus has the potential to mutate into a deadly one, but it seems like everything is getting blown way out of proportion...

Edee N
So could ebola and any other bacteria.

I think we should all move into solitary confinement and never get out of our houses and destroy anyone or anything that comes close.

pi
For an unknown disease H1N1,why not quarantine , China( PRC) is absolutely right job.
For those countrise experts and leaders, questioning for scientific reasons to from PRC,are pig- stupid.
Why don't ask themself ,the H1N1 is actually understood and or vacine found???
So who should be asked next? Be " thinking before you ask"as gasing,right !

Kenmar Vibar Bual
WHO is in a difficult predicament and following appropriate protocol of communicating facts. This is what they do. A better informed public is a prepared public. It's better to be proactive and wrong than reactive when it's too late. This allows us as individuals to make informed decisions about our approach to staying healthy.

Fred
What the WHO is really saying is: "Pay attention to us, we are relevant. We need to increase our budget".

What the medias are saying is: "Pay attention, read our stories. We need to increase our budget".

Moved on....
The WHO and the UN have lost all credibility with me. I don't believe anything they say anymore.

The Other White Meat
What we have is barely a trickle and these guys are screaming tidal wave.

The media should tell them to shut up and come back when they have some real facts.

SP Smith
2 billion people potentially infected does not equate to a high death toll. Research results coming in the last few days give cause for encouragement.

The Mexican deaths remain an anomoly -they can't be put down to a nastier version of the current strain.It may have to do with socioeconomics or other reasons yet unknown.

Now IF this strain becomes more virulent, we could see a higher rate of deaths. Should those & the underlying high number of infections occur within a fairly short time frame, we WOULD be in trouble... at least for aseveral miserable months as we try to cope with not enough health assets available, not enough well peopleto work in many sectors of the economy & the overall emotional toll.

But we DON'T know what may happen.

Until we have clear signs it's going to turn nasty, our best bet is to practioce good hygiene & good lifestyle habits & get on with living.

Tono
It is a shame how not that many people are concerned about the influenza.

If more people dug around into the world's history, and looked at how many people died from influenza following WWI, then people might not be so proud as to not wash their hands often.

Stanton
Someone has to stir the pot. H1N1 isn't the lead story anymore.
The Coyotes are bigger news.

steve robinson
The people at WHO should be forced to read the little boy that cried wolf.

Reece
WHO - wow, a pandemic, eh? Like in the '70's when people freaked out much like they are now and it never materialized?

All you've done was cried wolf (twice). The next time if it's real people will ignore you much like they are doing with the CDC.

mick
Very scary!

Rob
Scare tactics as usual, move on, 150 deaths in NA out of 400 million people should not even make the news, relax live your life, just a new kind of flu, get used to it, it will come and go, just like the normal flu,the WHO like to cause panic, but people are starting to realize this is nothing, so should the media.

Fed up
The WHO are starting to believe what they are saying- I am not!