ctvtoronto.ca

The St. Paul's byelection has to be seen as the Liberals' to lose. It's been Grit-red since 1999, when brash young lawyer Michael Bryant took it from Tory incumbent and cabinet minister Isabel Bassett by almost 5,000 votes.

He held the seat for a decade before stepping down in late May as economic development minister to take a job as CEO of Invest Toronto, a new city agency created to lure investment dollars to this city of 2.5 million.

Bryant is now facing criminal charges following a fatal, apparent road-rage incident with a bicyclist on Aug. 31.

Dr. Eric Hoskins, a Rhodes scholar and co-founder of WarChild Canada, hopes to retain St. Paul's for the Liberals in the Sept. 17 vote. He is running in a riding where the Liberals won by 9,370 votes in 2007. It's been a federal Liberal riding since 1993 (the boundaries are the same for the federal and provincial ridings).

His main challengers are:

• Sue-Ann Levy, a city hall columnist for the Toronto Sun newspaper, running for the Progressive Conservatives (the Tories placed second in 2007)
• Julian Heller, a local lawyer and community activist, running for the NDP for a second time, having been the third-place candidate in 2007
• Chris Chopik, a realtor, running for the Green Party

There are six other candidates, either independents or with minor parties.

Leading up to the Sept. 17 vote in the sprawling midtown riding, however, it has not been a dream political summer for the governing Ontario Liberals.

Early this summer, the eHealth Ontario affair provided a steady drip-drip of headlines about questionable spending by consultants and abuse of the arm's-length agency's ability to hire consultants without seeking competing bids.

More recently, similar allegations of misspending have emerged at Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. Finance Minister Dwight Duncan acted swiftly, firing CEO Kelly McDougald, who has filed suit for wrongful dismissal.

There are more than 600 such arm's length agencies, so the potential for more bad headlines is vast.

As he did some watering in the front yard of his Vaughan Road home in the riding's northwest, Glen Levin sounded angry about such spending, what he termed as "some of the deplorable excesses that have taken place in many of these government corporations at a time when the country and North America as a whole is mired in recession."

However, he doesn't necessarily see it as a reason to "send a message" to the Ontario Liberal Party and Premier Dalton McGuinty.

"I wouldn't hold him accountable because this sort of thing happened when the Conservatives were in power," he said, noting the firing of then-Hydro One CEO Eleanor Clitheroe by the provincial Tory government in 2002.

Tax 'rage'

OK, then, how about the Harmonized Sales Tax? Or is it the Single Sales Tax?  Or is it the Dalton Sales Tax, as the Tories would have it?

On the upper-middle-class eastern side of the riding -- above Eglinton Avenue but west of Bayview Avenue, and a world away from upper Vaughan Road -- Dr. John David Stewart said he has done some canvassing work for Hoskins.

"I think most people don't like it, whether they're Liberal or not," he said, adding he doesn't think the tax will affect Hoskins' election effort.

The tax will see the eight per cent Retail Sales Tax merged with the five per cent GST on July 1, 2010. Economists generally approve of the move, but both the Tories and the NDP have been crusading against it.

Just above St. Clair Avenue but west of Yonge Street, Paul Petrus said his politics lean conservative and he'll be voting for Levy on Thursday.

However, "I actually support the Harmonized Sales Tax," he said, feeling it's an approach that makes sense.

As to the McGuinty government, he's middling on its performance. "I think he's doing an acceptable job, not a great job." He added that McGuinty's "not the devil."

Stewart said he's done some canvassing with Education Minister Kathleen Wynne, the MPP for neighbouring Don Valley West, and said they've had a generally good reception -- although it's tough to get peoples' attention in an era of iPods and smart phones.

Liklos Duranyik, a self-described political junkie, said he thinks the opposition parties are trying to attack the harmonized tax "as a way to entice the voters. They don't really talk about substantial issues."

He wanted to hear about policies on job creation, making sure the social safety net is in good shape, and reversing the program costs that the Tory government of Mike Harris dumped on cities in the 1990s.

Levin said even if the harmonized tax meant higher taxes, he's prepared to pay it if the money goes to better public transit and schools - not if it's wasted by Crown agency bureaucrats.

Lyn Adamson lives in a Vaughan Road home. She supports the NDP and has a Green housemate and a Liberal neighbour in another unit. "You won't see too many Conservative signs," she said of the area.

She went to the Sept. 10 all-candidates forum and asked a question about who was in favour of a 100 per cent renewable energy grid. She liked the answers she got from the NDP, Green and Liberal candidates, so she'd be comfortable with any of them winning.

"Politics is about pushing who we have in there to do what's right ... and we need a green energy future. To me, that's the most important thing," she said.

The bottom line

It's difficult to predict without polling data what exactly the riding's likely voting intentions will be. Even with such data, it's tough to know who will actually show up to vote -- and that will be a key question on Sept. 17.

One would think the Liberal campaign team would have the strongest "ground game," in terms of having identified supporters and having the logistics to get voters to the polls.

But who's more likely to vote: A Liberal supporter happy with the HST, as one example, or a Tory or NDP one who's unhappy?

Former P.C. Leader John Tory lost to a Liberal in the March 5 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock byelection, sinking his career in provincial politics. The Tories had held the seat since 1994, but many party faithful were angry their popular local MPP stepped aside for a candidate who may have been the leader but had no roots in the riding.

Hoskins doesn't live in St. Paul's. Heller and Levy do, although Hoskins has noted he lives in the adjacent Trinity-Spadina riding.

In byelections, turnout is generally smaller than in general elections (voter turnout in Tory's byelection was about 39 per cent, compared to 59 per cent in the 2007 general election). Voter turnout in St. Paul's was 54 per cent in 2007, slightly better than the provincial figure of 52.1 per cent.

Many people interviewed by ctvtoronto.ca either hadn't been following the byelection or were up-front about saying they wouldn't be voting.

And then there was Anthony, an elderly Italian who took a break from framing forms to rebuild his concrete porch to say this about whether he'll vote: "Maybe. Depends on how I wake up in the morning."

Comments are now closed for this story

KB in GTA
Let the CONS start trashing the Libs. On your mark, get set, GO!

MrChillz
Mr Levy supports the new tax,...that's good to know: Now I know who NOT to vote for!!!!!

Raj Rama
I am also a Candidate on the ballot, my name is Raj Rama ( www.rajrama.ca ). I worked with the Province from 1988-2005 and I would love to share what I saw from the "inside", about how Crown Corporations work (or don't). I have over 16 years of successful Ontario Government Experience, as well as being co-founder of Canadians Against Substance Abuse. As a proven/ award winning Social & Business Entrepreneur I will work for you the voter, not a Political Party.
Lets both tell Dalton McGuinty the Party is over! No HST in 2010! Make your Vote Count & be Part of History, Vote for (X) Rama

Jay-To
I would specifically vote against the conservative candidate. Anyone who works for the Sun chain is not fit to be in governance. If Ms. Levy is anything like her writing style I doubt many will vote for her anyhow. Nothing positive comes from her. If Hudak thinks she'll win just because she is a lesbian in toronto, he's gonna be sorry. She still needs, substance and an ability to bring people together. Her experience at the sun will only give her the abilty to spin in a Reform party type of way which is perfect for the chip of Harris's block Hudak. If St Pauls goes tory then they are suicidal. Look at what Harris did to Ontario and more specifically Toronto. The problems Toronto face are still carry overs from Harris' and Eves' manipulations.

Kevin in TO
I think Jay-TO is in denial here. Blaming all of Toronto's problems on the Harris/Eves govt is as wrong as it is naive. If Lastman had not frozen property taxes the downloading would not have been a problem. However, lets not beat around the bush. There is absolutely no question that the decisions made by Miller and his cohorts over the past 6 years have put Toronto on a path to disaster. They have increased the size of govt while at the same time shrunk the business property tax base. The outcome of this by election will be partially influenced by people's judgment of Miller's gang in City Hall. I hope they get it right this time and elect Ms Levy.

Nick J Boragina (Toronto)
I work in the riding, and as well maintain my own election projection website. I think this riding is certainly winnable by the Tories (less so by the NDP) and actually would say that at this time, the Tories have an edge on the Liberals here.

Brian
Look enough of the consertative government not giving Toronto a big share of money mainly for infrastructure because they don't get votes here enough of Harper too