Updated: Mon Nov. 09 2009 10:10:47 PM

CTV.ca News Staff

Polls are now open in a set of four federal byelections that are expected to reinforce the status quo, rather than shake up the House of Commons.

Political pundits expect the Bloc Quebecois to hang on to two Quebec ridings , the NDP to keep a British Columbia seat and the Tories to reclaim a longtime Conservative riding that was recently held by Bill Casey, a Tory turned independent.

None of the ridings are considered Liberal territory but that hasn't stopped the Conservatives from posing the byelections as a test of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff's leadership.

If you're the Official Opposition, I think you'd be expected to do well in byelections in the midst of a global economic downturn," Conservative party spokesman Fred DeLorey said Sunday.

"I think it says something about leadership."

L. Ian MacDonald, the editor of Policy Options magazine, said the polls are showing that the Liberals have not improved their standing with voters across the country.

"We have four elections on both coasts and in both official languages," MacDonald told CTV's Canada AM during an interview from Montreal. "Two of them are here in Quebec and one in Nova Scotia and one in British Columbia."

"And I think the storyline for tonight...is that the Liberals have a good chance of being third in all four of them, which is unusual for the Official Opposition because normally byelections are about the government and voter satisfaction," he added.

Last time around, the Liberals came in second in the Hochelaga election race, and they came third or worse in the remaining seats that are up for grabs on Monday.

As a result, Tuesday morning is going to be "a bad day at the office" for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, MacDonald said.

The Liberals have denied they are struggling as much as the polls suggest.

Former Liberal cabinet minister Anne McLellan, who leads the party's election readiness team, admitted that the Liberals hope only to improve their share of the vote during Monday's byelections.

But McLellan said rival parties should not expect that the Liberals have given up their long-term goals.

"We're in the process of I think rebuilding our party, rebuilding the party finances, the party structure, the people around the leader in his office," she said in an interview with The Canadian Press.

"There's no point, you know, in gilding the lily. We have work to do and we will do that work. I think the Conservatives and New Democrats can say what they want but they probably underestimate the Liberal party and the people in it if they count us out in terms of the longer term."

Seats up for grabs

In Quebec, two seats are available -- one in the Montreal riding of Hochelaga, the other in the riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup, northeast of Quebec City.

NDP Leader Jack Layton says he is happy that his party seems poised to give the Bloc Quebecois a challenge in both of the byelections taking place in the province on Monday.

The Conservatives have provided some tough competition for the Bloc in the Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup riding, having a former local mayor, Bernard Genereux, run under the Tory flag.

In Nova Scotia, the Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley seat that was formerly held by independent member Casey will also be available.

Casey resigned his seat in April, when he announced that he had been appointed as senior representative for Nova Scotia's Department of Intergovernmental Affairs.

Prior to his resignation, Casey served constituents in northern Nova Scotia from 1988 to 1993 and from 1997 to 2009.

Casey sat as a Conservative until he was kicked out of the government caucus in 2007 for publicly criticizing the budget. The following year, he ran as an independent and won.

Tory candidate Scott Armstrong is hoping that most of Casey's supporters will vote for the Conservatives.

The remaining Monday byelection is taking place in the B.C. riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam, a seat that had been held by NDP MP Dawn Black since January 2006.

Earlier this year, Black stepped down from her seat to pursue provincial politics, setting the stage for a showdown between NDP and Conservative candidates.

With files from The Canadian Press

Comments are now closed for this story

Cathy
I honestly think Mr. Ignatieff's intentions were for self promotion only and not for serving Canada and Canadians. Canadians are seeing this and it is showing at the polls.

Darrell
Ignatieff has dishonoured this country's values with his writings for many years, why would I support him?

John in Mississauga
Darrellsaid 2 1 Ignatieff has dishonoured this country's values with his writings for many years, why would I support him? =====================================

And this is why we have such a problem here in Canada. I vote for the person here in my own riding who I believe will make tha best MP out of what is available in my own riding. I don't care which party he represents, I want the best MP representing me. That's the problem in this country. We vote based on our feelings on a leader of a particular party instead of the best representitive in your area. Parties shouldn't come into it at all. Would you vote for a complete idiot and moron in your riding JUST because you don't like the leader of another party and leave the best qualified person without your support????? That's just stupid and then people wonder why nothing can get done in Ottawa.During the 2008 election, I went to a town hall meeting of all the candidates in my area and I got up and asked a specific question that was important to me which was "When it comes to votes in the HOC on issues, can we count on you to vote the way your constituents wish or will you vote strictly along party lines" Three of the four candidates (no bloc rep) got up and said they would consult with the constituencey for input on issues and the Conservative candidate got up and said he'd check with his leader as to which way to vote. You guessed it, the Conservative guy finished a distant third. My intentions had been to vote Conservative in that election till this candidate said that and I changed my mind right after he gave his answer.

STEVE H.
This report, while good, doesn't paint the picture for the LPC that it should. If the LPC is shutout of all four of these ridings = 3rd place or worse then it is a disaster for the leader M Ignatieff. With a minority gov't the official opposition should be ready to go to the polls at the drop of a hat after the gov't has been in power for a year and the Liberals are no where near ready for an election. They would be decimated at the hands of the Conservatives. In all my 54 years I've never seen the Liberals in such a mess. It'll take more then office staff switheroos to bring them back from the political abyss they find themselves in!!....

david sawkiw[saskatchewan farmer]
Maybe the liberals should admit that they need to re-build, rather than desperately hanging on to what they USED to be.

Portes
If I were all of the people on this blog, I would wait until later this evening to make any judgements. It looks like th Liberals are shut out, but I have heard that before with other parties. Polls have been known to be very way off the base and only time will tell. I think that Mr. Ignatief has shot himself in the foot as well as his party, but that is only my thought. What the Liberals need is a clean out and to start from fresh, I know that several posters on here will disagree with me, but that is their right,remember the Conservatives were shut out for 13 years. To rebuild a party takes time and I don't think the Liberals are going about it in the right way

JR Expat
The Liberals are in a mess because of the "Legacy of Corruption" Jean Chretien and Paul Martin have left for Canadians. Ignatieff is a self-serving academic just like Dion, and the Liberals need some major surgery to get Canadians to take them seriously. The Conservatives, like them or not have done more for Canada than the Liberals ever did in all their years of power, and they have done it with endless battles and media attacks. Canada is now figuring out who is best to run the country in these tough times and that will be the Conservatives.

Dave in Que.
L Ian MacDonald former Mulroney speech writer as well as Mr. Harper advisor on Quebec policy. Yeah he's not the least bit biased.

daryn
What is wrong with this Liberal party? When will they realize that the people don't want them because of their leader? They need to sing the good-bye song to Ignatieff the way they did with Dion. Maybe they will get a higher report card mark if they vote in Justin Trudeau as party leader.

Intelligent Liberal
These four seats mean NOTHING! Only the Liberal Party can save Canada from Harper and the CONS! Prime Minister IGGY and Justin Trudeau will fix the CON mess! Harper is evil and has hidden agenda.

Brian fr Langley
To DarynSure thats exactly what this country needs, a kid to be our leader whose only claim to fame is his some people liked his daddy. While You may have meant it tongue in cheek, the unfortunate reality is that does seem what Canadian politics have devolved into. A little media hype here and a little there and our next saviour is just around the corner.

N.D. Peer
Intelligent liberal strikes gain!!!

Wendy
In 1997 Ignatief was named one of the top 10 Canadians by new york times & Mcleans. In 2002 he was named one of the 50 most influential Canadians shaping society. Seems to me whether he stays in politics or not, he will still have an influence on society largger than Harpe ever will..

Fiend, AB
Good! Perhaps this will send a message to the Liberals that Canadians do not approve of Ignatieff's egotistical idiocy. When he first arrived on the scene I thought he would be a formidable opponent to Mr. Harper but sadly this man is a mere pretender. Back to the drawing board, Libs.

Portes
Intelligent LiberalI suggest that you take some time to think, the Liberal Party under it's present leader is doomed to failure,unless they have the guts to boot him out and ELECT a new leader they will be wandering the wilderness for years to come. I am not saying this to upset you as you are an obvious die hard Liberal. there as times when you have to step back and take a look at your party and admit where they are going wrong. You cannot just follow them blindly over the cliff

Red X
The only change will be the Conservatives retain the seat the went Independent when Bill Casey stood up to Harpy and his damage to Nova Scotia in backing out on his word regarding the treatment of equalization payments in relation to energy. Note: the Conservatives have no seats in NFLD

Myles in N.W.O.
Woooo go Iggy keep digging yourself lower and lower, its about time for the conservatives to get a majority gov't, and it took us 13 years to rebuild so its gonna take you guys just as long if not longer, hopefully these bye elections are another one of those things where the left wing vote is split and it elects conservatives like come on 3 left wing parties and 4 in quebec thats just to much

Nearly lost hope
Gotta be driving Fiberal supporters nuts their party is the Toronto Maple Leafs of politics. After the ridiculous number of years the Fiberals ruled despite the corruption, sanctimonious attitude and the contempt they displayed for rural Canada I didn't think voters had it in them to dump these a-holes. I guess what goes around, comes around.

Catwoman 37 in Ottawa
I think NDP will do well in BC, and Nova Scotia byelections. With the help of Premiere Dexter, it might actually help the NDP get the Votes out in Nova Scotia. Whereas in Quebec, the Bloc have a good chance of picking up seats.If the Bloc, and NDP do well, and the Grits and Tories don't win a seat that tells you something.Things have got to change.

Spence in Ontario
The bye elections, while interesting, don't mean as much as they are being made out to be. I don't think any of these elections represent any real massive shift in the electoral map or are some kind of referendum on how the conservatives or liberals are doing. Keep in mind that none of these places are really prime liberal turf as well.

Warkworth Willy
If the pundits are correct Mr. Rae will be honing his knives to a very sharp edge.

Kris D.
JR Expat said:“The Conservatives, like them or not have done more for Canada than the Liberals ever did in all their years of power…”-----------------------------Really? Like what? Seriously, what have they done other than rack up the largest deficit in Canada’s history, even after being handed the best managed finances in the world! I’m waiting… what have they done that’s been so great for our country?*crickets*

Rex
So, John in Mississauga, you voted for one of the politicians that lied to you, rather than the one who was truthful! It's all in your perception.

DaveEast
The writer who posted that the current Liberal misfortune is the result of the arrogance and corruption that categorized the Chretien years, is right on. Mind you, putting forth unelectable pseudo-intellectuals like Iggie or failed incompetents like Bob Rae cannot help their cause either. Their anit-job policies are merely the nails in the coffin of their own making.

cambob
A Canadian trait of voting for a singluar leader, rather than the member of parliament in thier riding is a constant reminder that we hold no one accountable. Luckily, the MP for my riding is Michael Ignatieff. And judging from the comments of my neighbors, Mr. Ignatieff has lost a large amount of support in his riding.

JB in Calgary
@ John in Mississauga

Guess what John? The Conservative member was the only one that was honest with you. The other candidates told you what you wanted to hear. The Liberals and The Conservatives have both kicked people out of the Party because the person didn't vote the way the Party wanted.

There is a difference between what you want it to be and the way it is. Please don't delude yourself. If politics were the way you wanted it to be there wouldn't be political party's and everybody would be independent. How many independents are there? 2 or 3?

Don
The only way these by-elections have any relevance to Michael Ignatieff is that Stephen Harper finds Ignatieff his only threat. So he or his Stepford Conservatives, most likely media Conservatives, will try and take away the real focus. Stephen Harper has tried to get a majority for many years. If Harper doesn't get the full 4 by-elections, then the country will know there is a problem with Harper and the Conservative/Reform/Alliance Party.

Tim
John in Mississauga - I would agree with you if in fact we DID have a system where individual MP's could vote how they want and all votes in the House were free votes. As it is MP's are all but officially obliged to vote on bills the way their party and their leader says to. Given this is our parliamentary tradition, it is in fact irresponsible to vote for just a candidate as an individual. The only PROPER way in our system IS to vote for the party when we go to the polls. If we should have the attitude you advocate, we need to change our parliamentary system to reflect that.

Doug @ BC
Well,this former Liberal is still hoping the Conservatives make some gains.Though I place little importance in by elections,I am looking for voters to send a couple of messages.Bye elections are a great opportunity to send a party a message without having to fear your effort could accidentally elect a government that you really don't want. This time,I'm peeved that Dawn Black ran to win a seat as an NDP MP,and then chose to resign as soon as she got a chance at a job closer to home.

In my case,leaving the Liberal party was not simply a matter of Mr.Dion or Mr.Ignatieff,or their leadership.From my perspective,they are simply to far left.Socialism is not the answer,but that is what they are trying to sell.Their party is a little more than a collection of lobbyists and special interest groups,and they are to obsessed with looking for ways to get elected,rather than finding policies that work for Canada,and can be expected to serve not only us,now,but our children and our grandchildren. I have plenty of issues with Mr.Harper.But this is still the best government we have had in several decades.The right way for the Liberals to win back my support,is to show they can do even better.I see little effort in that regard.Just a new lead singer to sing the same worn out songs. As long as the Liberals look like "NDP Lite",I will vote for the Conservatives.

j in nb
This article is a bit misleading. Are the Libs going to really lose ground? No they didn't win any of these seats before, so losing them again is not a defeat. As for the NDP gaining seats, I wish them well, but really this is not a General election so bye elections do tend to be a bit more vulnerable to protest votes historically. Thus The NDP may hold their western seat and put up a good run in the two BQ ridings in QUE. However, in Que they will return to BQ next General. Que is still very upset with the Libs, and Harper's policy mistakes in the last campaign hurt the Cons there. As for the riding in NS, check that riding's history out. It is Conservative almost exclusively. The fact that the Cons can "gain" a seat there is only because they kicked out their own incumbant for voting against the budget and he then defeated the Cons as an IND. This is really a Con riding so they sure aren't going to vote LIB, and since there are many still angry at Harper in Cumberland area could see this one going NDP especially after the last Prov election.Just my thoughts

PBW
Intelligent Liberal thinks that ". . . Prime Minister IGGY and Justin Trudeau will fix the CON mess " . Well, to start with, Iggy is NOT prime minister; he is leader of the opposition and liable to remain that way - or be unseated by Mr. Rae should he lose to many by-elections, or even only manage the same number of seats in the next general election. As for our "intelligent" Liberal pinning his hopes on Justin Trudeau - well, what's in a name (sorry Will!)? A famous father does not a good leader make. I think it is time for Liberal Headquarters to start educating their membership; just because surveys indicate that Liberals are, on the whole, better educated than Conservatives does not mean they have more common sense; witness Intelligent Liberal's post. Voters in those ridings up for grabs who read that post are liable to throw up their hands and totally ignore the Liberal name on their ballot.

Max in Vancouver
Last evening, over Sunday dinner, I was explaining political parties and what their platform is to my 24 year old. I suggested to him that the NDP basically represented the blue collar union type of voter and their mandate was to provide support social programs for the workers. I went on to explain that the Conservative party is more business oriented, leaning towards self accomplishment through business practice, growth in life without the main support of the social system and tax relief for the taxpayer, leaving it up to the taxpayer to arrange his own social support.

Then I paused, as I tried to think what the Liberal platform really is. I did suggest that the Liberals are basically a left leaning, middle of the road, taxation type of government trying to be everything to everybody and doing it very poorly, relying mostly on leadership popularity such as Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien. Boy, does Iggy have a huge identity problem if he wants to become the next prime minister.

SpinMeNot
This is where the Liberals pay for their false accusations on H1N1, the olympic relay, and gun control. If anyone had believed them they would be a sure thing to day.

mahanna ali
to kris d....you are at a loss as to what the conservatives have done during their current tenure as a MINORITY government.....well...how about prison (incarceration) reforms...how about judicial reforms-federal and provincial justices are now appointed to oversee cases based on the rule of the law and not "pinko" social engineering experiments... how about general world respect for our country-something that was lacking not to long ago...how about bringing our military back to a level of respectability..like it used to be before the liberals decimated it-remember every strong country should be backed by a strong military-that is one of the measures of a country's might...come to think of it, this current government which at the time was the smallest minority government in canadian history was one of the most productive as it successfully passed over 70 pieces of legislation - lgislation that few majority governments would have had the balls to pass....it is more difficult now for foriegn corporation to buy ours out due to rule changes-it can still be accomplished however....also your comment on a financially managed surplus being squandered...well $13 billion surplus as a result of raiding the ei fund to a tune of $50 billion...true liberal fashion i suppose...not to bring up the afforementioned gutting of our military and the decimating of provincial transfer payments. that "surplus was also a direct result of overtaxation...the conservatives merely gave it back to us through tax cuts.kris d if you want to verify this and/or find out more info on the accomplishments of the current government than get on the "net" and do some "googling".....

Jeff
Anybody who publicly pulls the plug on a government without looking into the implications deserves to be voted out of office. Clearly, that is a sign of self-interest and "US" style politics. We don't want that here in Canada.

STEVE H.
Reason I would never ever vote Liberal:I retired 2 years ago from the Canadian Airforce with 32 years of servce. During this time the Fed gov'ts were predominantly Liberal. When I joined (1975) the regualar force was approx 120,000 strong. When I retired we could barely scrape together 60,000 (2007). We soldiered on. All the Liberals ever did was cut, cut and more painful cuts. We soldiered on. Our equipment delapidated to the point of us becoming irrelevant in todays military world. We soldiered on. Then under Paul Martins tenure as PM he decided we should be sent into a war in Afghanistan under equipped, under funded and under manned. We soldiered on. We were a joke/punching bag/whipping boy to the Liberals especially to the Chretien Liberals so I will never support that party!! The present Conservative administration has done more for the CF in the past 4 years then the Liberals ever did!! A vote for Harper is a vote of support for our troops, please remember this when you see the next rotation of troops leaving for Afghanistan!!....

mark
The Libs shouldn't panic and start the infighting, again. Iggy's learning like the other 'leaders' did and Harpo had a good last three months with all the ads the cons could buy. As for the comments that Harper has done more for the Country than Chretien and Martin? What a joke, pretty easy for Harpo when all he has to do is spend 50 billion that our kids wil have to pay off and shame on us for askinf for it, kind of like the Trudeau and Mulroney years. Pretty easy to spend rather that cut and pay for what you use. IF the Libs were smart the ywould forget about challenging for the top right now for the next two years and let that chameleon Harpo try to pay down that Deficit and see how this so called economist really does.

Wade Ens
The Liberals are now considered independents it all depends which way the independents break, I suspect to the Tories as the party of the Centre.

Vince M
Wendy, I don't care if some US publication calls Iggy the most influencial Canadian twelve years ago. In the last twelve years what has he done except be annointed by the Liberals inner circle? He has not run an election. When he gets into an election we will find out just how influencial he is with the only people that matter - Canadians.

Kris D.
Vince M:Actually, Mr. Ignatieff won in the past two elections, that's how he's a Member of Parlaiment. He won his seat just like Mr. Harper.

A Nation of Denial
The Liberals have denied they are struggling. Of course, This is the party that put the I in denial.

LM in AB
Yes it is true these by-elections are not a true indication of the overall public voting intentions. It sure is about optics and the perception of the Liberal leader. The Conservatives made it this way, and the Libs and media did the selling as usual. The Libs really shouldn't try to manipulate and outsmart the Conservative tactical machine. They get creamed every time. Sure is fun to watch though.

vic
Ignatieff Holds Canada citizenship and a native born Canadian and a world-renowned scholars with high prestige. He has his right to run for an election to become our Prime Minister. Many people think that Ignatieff is the worst in the best, but Harpe is the best in the worst Prime Minister. Harpe free granted Cash $10,000,000,000 to IMF and threw away $15,000,000,00 into Iraq and Afghan. All our urgent need good education, good health care and good transportation are funded to the third world and Afghan. That's why our deficit is growing day by day!

Alysha Ont
Wendy.... I don't know where you get your information from but I consider myself a well read person and not once have I ever read any of those decorative comments about Ignatief being a Canadian. In fact, I never knew the man existed inside or outside of Canada until he became leader of the Liberal Party. This guy is so important that I even missed reading his books... but then I don't think I missed much except his evil remarks in general and his negativism towards our country Canada

cam
As long as liberals continue to act like their Tory corporate cousins they will remain in the wilderness.It took American democrats 30 years to get this simple truth. If the Canadian duopoly lasts as long the Canadian identity will be swallowed by the corporate giant to our south.

Red X
The BC seat will stay New Democrat because people don't like the HST OR the fact the Conservatives are running a $56,000,000,000.00 Deficit this year...

Jason Daniel Baker, Toronto
Three of the four ridings are in urban areas where gn control is popular. By trying to scrap the registry last week they gave the opposition an issue.I wonder why they didn't wait until after the by-elections.The Bloc should (Unfortunately) retain its standing in both ridings and my guess is that the the NDP will win the Vancouver seat. The only one in doubt is the Nova Scotia seat.

ikidyounot
"We have four elections on both coasts and in both official languages," MacDonald told CTV's Canada AM during an interview from Montreal. "Two of them are here in Quebec and one in Nova Scotia and one in British Columbia."

"And I think the storyline for tonight...is that the Liberals have a good chance of being third in all four of them, which is unusual for the Official Opposition because normally byelections are about the government and voter satisfaction," he added.
---------------------------


No that's not the storyline. That's what l. Ian MacDonald WANTS the storyline to be.

Why do the media always rely on these hacks to spin the news for us? Lazy, lazy, lazy.

AlbertaBoy111
"An economic slowdown, and perhaps even recession, threatens North America, the government in Ottawa will be tempted to take advantage of Alberta’s prosperity, to redistribute income from Alberta to residents of other provinces in order to keep itself in power. It is imperative to take the initiative, to build firewalls around Alberta, to limit the extent to which an aggressive and hostile federal government can encroach upon legitimate provincial jurisdiction." Stephen Harper to Ralph Klein in his "firewall" letter while still living in Alberta. That means before he became prime minister he saw the recession coming, but conveniently did not after becoming prime minister. I propose he lied through his teeth to ALL Canadians. It is proof he saw it coming. Years and years before it happened.

Tony
If the Liberals keep this up, Jack Layton and the NDP will soon be the Leader of the Official Opposition and Maybe prime minister.

Brent
Just give us a PC majority so that the justice and immigration systems can be totally revamped.

james
If Canadians don't have much confidence in Ignatieff as leader of the Official Opposition, then they must have none for him as PM.

John
The Liberals under Chretien could easily win an election because everyone was very, very angry with the Conservatives. No matter what the Liberals did or said they would have won. Anyone can win against a party that is broken up and lost. Once the Conservatives fixed their problems the Liberals could not hold their own. I like to think of it as a Tyson fight. Everyone was scared of the man until someone named Buster Douglas decided to fight back. Once he did he exposed the weakness and won.

Gayle from Edmonton
Well I see the conservative party has sent out its troops to dominate the posting again.I cannot see how these by-elections have anything to do with Ignatieff. I can see how they have a lot to do with Harper, who, if he is really polling in majority territory, should win more than one riding. The NS riding is a given for conservatives, so if they lose that is a big message. The BC riding is very winnable, as is the Quebec riding where they are running a popular former mayor.All this noise about trying to make this about the liberals. Is it possible the conservatives are trying to deflect attention away from their own performance?

Jay, Ottawa
I wish this Conservative government would just for 5 minutes focus on us Canadians instead of the Liberal party. There's work to be done - do it and stop making everything single thing a political game. We're tired of it. We can always show you the way out if you don't feel like working.