A new poll finds Coun. Rob Ford maintaining a lead in a Toronto mayoral race that has shrunk to three candidates.

The Forum Research poll is the first one conducted since executive Rocco Rossi pulled out of the race late Wednesday following a poll that put him in last place.

The survey was conducted Thursday and contacted 700 Toronto residents. It allocated support as follows among decided or leaning voters:

  • Ford - 44 per cent
  • George Smitherman - 38 per cent
  • Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone - 16 per cent

An additional two per cent said they would vote for someone else, while 16 per cent said they were undecided.

The poll's results are considered accurate within plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20. A spokesperson for Forum Research said the poll was independently produced.

Respondents were asked the following:

  • If the election for the Mayor of Toronto was held today, which candidate are you most likely to vote for?
  • Even though you may not have made up your mind, who would you be leaning towards at this time?

Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said the results showed a neck-and-neck race.

"Rob Ford's been running a frontrunner's campaign, staying out of the spotlight, not saying a lot," he said. "That may change, because I don't know if he can coast to the finish line."

The municipal election will be held on Oct. 25.

Voters were also asked how they would vote if Pantalone were to drop out. In that scenario, Ford had a one-point lead over Smitherman.

For Smitherman, that showed a clear message: "At this stage, a vote for Coun. Pantalone is a vote for Rob Ford."

Pantalone said Friday he's staying in, and that he was the only progressive choice.

"The two of them are the same. There's big Rob Ford and there's mini-Rob Ford," Pantalone said of his main opponents. "Anybody who thinks there's a choice -- my God, they're choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea."

This latest poll follows one released Wednesday by Ipsos Reid, conducted for Newstalk 1010 Radio. It found that Smitherman, a former deputy premier, was statistically tied with Ford, the Etobicoke veteran who has spent 10 years on city council. Support broke down as follows:

  • Smitherman - 31 per cent
  • Ford - 30 per cent
  • Pantalone - 11 per cent
  • Rossi - 3 per cent

That poll sampled 400 Torontonians over the Thanksgiving weekend and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Twenty-five per cent of respondents proclaimed themselves to be undecided.

The poll was considered jarring because it was the first since June that didn't have Ford as the frontrunner. In a mid-September Nanos Research poll of 1,021 people conducted for CTV Toronto, CP24 and the Globe and Mail, Ford had almost 46 per cent support among decided voters compared to about 21 per cent for Smitherman.

After quitting the race, Rossi said it was clear Torontonians wanted to choose between Ford and Smitherman.

Ford has relentlessly pushed a message of "stopping the gravy train at City Hall," while Smitherman has tried to brand himself as the gathering point of the anyone-but-Ford mayor. He has also tried to call himself the progressive candidate.

Pantalone has said he's the only true progressive candidate running for mayor.

Torontonians get one last round of advance voting this weekend. The polls open at 10 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. Information can be found at the city's Toronto Votes website.

Endorsements

In the ongoing battle of endorsements, former Toronto mayor, Sen. Art Eggleton, threw his support to Smitherman.

"I've never publicly endorsed a candidate for mayor of the city, but now is the time to do that," Eggleton said.

Coun. Adam Vaughan (Ward 20, Trinity-Spadina) also threw his support to Smitherman.

Vaughan is considered to be on the progressive wing of council, but told the Toronto Star: “I like Joe and I consider him a friend, but you have to fight the election you’re dealt, not the one you want.

“The only way to deal with Rob Ford is George Smitherman. I’m prepared to work with George Smitherman,” he said.

The Ford camp said it was pleased to accept the endorsement of Coun. Peter Milczyn (Ward 5, Etobicoke Lakeshore).

"I'm very pleased to have Peter's endorsement.  He has a great deal of experience at City Hall, and as a member of the Responsible Government Group I know he has the taxpayers' best interest at heart," Ford said in a news release.

Coun. John Parker (Ward 26, Don Valley West), another member of the group, endorsed Ford on Thursday.

With a report from CTV Toronto's Naomi Parness